翻译：买入评级——哈登-西蒙斯大买入的风险、回报和影响

Irving for the first two months of this season because of New York City's COVID-19 vaccine mandate to nine-game losing streak to trading Harden.

Life in the NBA comes at you fast.

392 天之前，纽约尼克斯队将勇士队带到皇后区以完成他们的超级赛季建构。在那段间隔时间之中，他们从夺冠大受欢迎到次轮出局，到本该季之前两个月底罗宾逊因为新奥尔良的 COVID-19 疫苗授权弊下端而无法出战，再到报价勇士队之前的九败绩。

在NBA，一切都譬如说

In the short term, the Nets' odds of winning a title have decreased --- down to +425 from +400, according to Caesars Sportsbook. If Brooklyn could count on Harden being fully engaged for the postseason, a duo of him and Kevin Durant would have given the Nets a realistic path to the championship even if it started in the play-in tournament. Remember, we saw Durant and Harden playing on a severe hamstring injury nearly take out the eventual champion Milwaukee Bucks last spring with Irving playing no role because of injury in the last three games of that series.

根据 Caesars Sportsbook 的数据库，纽约尼克斯拿下佳绩的赔率短间隔时间从 +400 降至 +425。 如果皇后区可以到时勇士队在总决赛之中面放手，那么即使从第一圈开始，他和杜兰特的三人组也时会给纽约尼克斯一条通往佳绩的普通人沿路。请求记住，我们看到杜兰特和有严重腿筋脑震荡的勇士队在上周近乎淘汰了就此的好成绩堪萨斯城雄鹿，而罗宾逊在该系列赛的就此第三场热身赛之中面因为烧伤而没法出战。

Still, Brooklyn had to acknowledge that being the favorite to win it all this season was no longer realistic, given Irving's ineligibility for home games and Joe Harris' uncertain return from ankle surgery. The Eastern Conference also looks far deeper this season with five teams besides the Nets on track for at least 48 wins, compared with three teams at that level including Brooklyn in last year's 72-game season.

尽管如此，皇后区只好承认，考虑到罗宾逊未资格加入体育场热身赛以及洛德-安德森从肩膀右手术之中面趋于稳定的状态的不考虑到性，本该季被选为夺冠大受欢迎不太确实依然普通人。南部本该季看起来也变得水深火热，除了纽约尼克斯之外，有五支赛季至少能取得48 场胜利，而在上周的 72 场热身赛之中面，为数不多还包括皇后区在内的三支赛季处于这一准确度。

That reality surely made it easier to make a trade that lands an All-Star who's seven years younger than Harden, plus a valuable outside shooter in Curry who helps cushion the loss of Harris.

这一普通人无疑让纽约尼克斯做出报价似乎容易，给与一个比勇士队身为 7 岁的小牛队球星，再缘故一个有实用价值的快攻射右手卡马，很难协助缓冲洛德-安德森烧伤的损失。

The most fascinating piece of this trade for the Nets is how Simmons will fit. Irving's availability complicates that process because Simmons may have to play different roles in home and road games. With Irving out of the lineup, Brooklyn probably wants the ball in Simmons' hands as the team's best playmaker. On the road, Irving and Durant become primary ballhandlers, and Simmons moves off the ball. It was easier when Harden was the point guard home or away.

对于纽约尼克斯来说，这笔报价之中面最有趣的是克诺克带进赛季经济体制的方式则。罗宾逊的出赛方式则让这个每一次似乎复杂，因为克诺克确实只好在体育场和大比分热身赛之中面扮演有所不同的主角。随着罗宾逊亦然演员阵容之中面，皇后区确实希望克诺克作为赛季最难的组织者然后将球借给克诺克右手之中面。在大比分，罗宾逊和杜兰特被选为主要的前锋右手，而克诺克则透过无球跑动。当勇士队在体育场或大比分兼前锋前锋时，情况要容易的多。

Ideally, I think Simmons would play more or less the role that Bruce Brown Jr. has for the Nets the last two seasons as a guard defender who floats into open spaces on offense and acts as a screener. Philadelphia tried that at times with Simmons, most notably during the 2020 bubble restart, until a knee injury brought that experiment to a halt after just three games.

理想意味著，我相信克诺克或多或少时会扮演过去两个该季在纽约尼克斯队兼的球场上攻守者的布鲁斯-马丁，在反攻时探寻以此类推并作为掩护者。2020年工业园区复赛期间纽约就在克诺克口中尝试过这种做法，但因膝盖脑震荡，仅仅第三场热身赛后，该试验中就暂缓了。

Simmons is more dangerous than Brown when making plays off of short rolls and gives Brooklyn more size defensively --- something that will help it play undersized shooting guards Curry and Patty Mills, possibly even together. The question is what happens in home games.

在总决赛之中面，克诺克在纸制下反攻时比马丁更加具严重威胁，并且在攻守下端用自身极大的尺寸给皇后区带来优势——这将有助于他与身材矮小的总分前锋卡马和帕蒂-米尔斯一起踢足球。弊下端是在体育场热身赛之中面时会发生什么。

Do the Nets trust Curry and Mills to initiate the offense? Does Durant serve as point forward, adding even more to his plate? Or is Simmons in that role, one that has highlighted his reluctance to shoot from the perimeter and go to the free throw line in past postseasons?

纽约尼克斯是否忠诚卡马和米尔斯来发起反攻？杜兰特是否兼前锋之前锋，为他继续增加场上责任？或者是克诺克继续扮演他在过去的总决赛之中面所强调的他不希望从快攻投纸制以及走过罚球线的那个主角？

The timing of this trade doesn't help Steve Nash and his coaching staff, who have already had a year unlike any before. Brooklyn has 26 games left in the regular season after Thursday. Durant, already ruled out of the All-Star Game, surely won't play until after the break. It's unclear when Simmons might first suit up. And of the 23 games the Nets play after the break, Irving is currently eligible for just 10 of them. That's not much time for Brooklyn to build chemistry.

这笔报价的时机并未协助史蒂夫-纳什和他的二队减轻不胜担，他们不太确实度过了之极大的一年。每周五之后，纽约尼克斯的该季还剩余 26 场热身赛。杜兰特不太确实考虑到报销小牛队，应有要等到小牛队过后后才能复出。在此之之前还不似乎克诺克什么时候时会登场。而在小牛队德明息后纽约尼克斯将会差一点23场热身赛之中面，罗宾逊在此之之前只有资格加入其之中面的10场，留给皇后区构建化学作用的间隔时间不太确实所剩余无几。

Defensively, Simmons should be a massive upgrade for the Nets. After showing enough faculty with a switch-heavy scheme to be competent defensively during the 2021 playoffs, they've frequently been flambéed by quality competition this season. Milwaukee scored more than 124 points per 100 possessions in both head-to-head wins, per NBA Advanced Stats.

在攻守下端，克诺克应该是纽约尼克斯的一个巨大系统升级。纽约尼克斯在 2021 年总决赛之中面演示了攻守下端的大量代替防的能力之后，在本该季与高准确度对右手的牵制之中面他们的攻守下端经常被击溃。根据 NBA Advanced Stats的数据库，堪萨斯城在第一场与皇后区正面交锋并取得胜利的热身赛之中面每 100 淘汰赛总分至少124 分。

As a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, Simmons was overrated last season. His on-ball defense isn't as valuable as having a top-tier rim protector, but in a playoff setting his versatility will be a huge plus.

而作为等奖项最佳攻守球星当选者，克诺克上该季被高估了。他的有球攻守不像其顶级的护框能力那么有实用价值，但在总决赛之中面，他在攻守下端的多才多艺将是一个巨大的优势。

Down the road, swapping Harden for Simmons gives the Nets more options. Trading Harden anywhere but Philly was going to be a challenge because of his contract. We already know from the past six months' of trade rumors that Simmons has value elsewhere if Brooklyn doesn't like the fit.

期望，用勇士队代替克诺克时会给纽约尼克斯更加多的选择。由于他的大选择权，在纽约以外的任何区域内报价勇士队都将是一个关键时刻。从过去六个月底的报价传闻之中面我们不太确实想到，如果皇后区不羡慕这套建议，克诺克在其他区域内也有报价实用价值。

The Nets also recouped two of the three first-round picks they sent the Rockets for Harden, allowing them to sweeten deals in a way that wasn't previously possible. And it's possible that Harris becomes easier for Brooklyn to move with Curry as a replacement already on the roster.

纽约尼克斯还给与了从德明斯顿报价来勇士队时付出的三个六场交之中面的两个，这让他们很难以一种以之前不确实的方式则透过更加沮丧的报价。同时，纽约尼克斯确实让不太确实在轮代替名单之中面的小卡马被选为季末趋于稳定之中面安德森的替代品从而容易的加载安德森的选择权。

Add it up and there's no question the Nets won this trade from a value perspective. Just how much they sacrificed in terms of short-term championship equity is tougher to tell based on Harden's mindset. Brooklyn also strengthened a competitor in the East for this year's playoffs, an important part of the calculation. Given all that, I understand why the Nets were willing to hold out and make the deal more favorable for them than a straight swap.

综上所述，从实用价值的角度看来看，纽约尼克斯毫无疑问拿下了这笔报价。根据勇士队的心态，很难假定他们在短期无缘的特别牺牲者了多少。虽然皇后区加强了今年总决赛南部的挑战对右手，但这是构想之中面的关键性组成大多。鉴于这一切，我明白为什么纽约尼克斯希望坚持并让这笔大报价对他们更加稳固，而不是透过勇士队和克诺克单纯直接的交代替。

76人：C-

In the end, Morey got his guy. At what price?

Despite the incentives for Brooklyn to make a trade now, the pull seemed stronger for the 76ers for a variety of reasons. Although they've played well enough without Simmons to stay in contention in the East --- Philadelphia is just 2.5 games out of first place and now three up on the Nets --- the Sixers were going to have a hard time competing in the playoffs while getting nothing from his roster spot.

就此，76人外间给与了他们要的，但以什么成本呢？

尽管皇后区直到现在有透过报价的或许，但出于各种原因，76 三巨头的实用性似乎更加强。 尽管他们在未克诺克的意味著打得足够好，很难在南部的争夺之中面留有佼佼者——纽约只落后第一名2.5个胜场，抛离纽约尼克斯3场——但克诺克的贡献为零让76 三巨头将很难在总决赛之中面挑战。

Given star center Joel Embiid is in the middle of his prime (he'll turn 28 next month) and as healthy as he's ever been, having played 42 of a possible 54 games thus far, Philly had urgency to get him the help necessary to compete for a championship. From an offensive standpoint, Harden is the best teammate Embiid has ever had, although it will be interesting to see how the two players fit together.

鉴于电影明星之中面锋洛德尔-福朱利安正处于巅峰期（紧接著底他将服兵役 28 岁），并且和过去一样健康，到迄今，他不太确实打了 54 场热身赛之中面的 42 场，纽约迫切希望他给与确实的协助以争夺好成绩。从反攻下端来看，勇士队是福朱利安本世纪最难的小将，尽管两名球星的完整性还有待证明。

Harden has always paired best with floor spacers and lob threats at center. Embiid isn't quite either of those. He's rolled to the hoop on ball screens just 16 times per 100 possessions this season, according to Second Spectrum tracking, a rate far lower than Brooklyn's centers. The lowest of that group is LaMarcus Aldridge at 30 per 100 possessions.

勇士队总是与站定诺开空间和很难挡拆顺下的之中面锋移动设备得最难。福朱利安不属于其之中面任何一个类型的球星。 根据 Second Spectrum 的监控，本该季他每 100 淘汰赛只有 16 次在有球掩护顺下到纸制下，这一比例远小于纽约尼克斯的之中面锋。皇后区该组之中面上限的是诺马库斯-阿尔德之中奇，每100淘汰赛30次。

There's no doubt Embiid can drag his defender to the perimeter to space for the isolations Harden favored by the end of his time in Houston, but that feels like a waste of the league's leading scorer at 29.4 PPG. Same with Harden dumping the ball into Embiid in the post, something he can do but is overqualified for as a primary option.

毫无疑问，福朱利安可以将他的攻守者诺到快攻，让勇士队透过在德明斯顿时炉火纯青地单打，但这感觉就像对场除此以外 29.4 分的Alliance头号总分右手的过多。正因如此，这与让勇士队将球喂给最下的福朱利安一样，他当然很难完成这样的工作，但对这样准确度的球星来说过于奢侈。

Assuming 76ers coach Doc Rivers staggers their minutes, part of the value of having both Embiid and Harden is that one of them should be on the floor at all times --- particularly useful when one or the other does miss time. Philadelphia's offensive rating has sunk by 7.7 points per 100 possessions with Embiid on the bench, taking the Sixers from outscoring opponents by 7.1 points per 100 possessions to a minus-2.3 net rating according to NBA Advanced Stats.

举例 76 三巨头的主教练之中弗斯错开他们的季初间隔时间，同时拥有福朱利安和勇士队的大多实用价值在于，他们之中面的一个人应该一直在场上——尤其是当赛季的另一位电影明星球星亦然时。 根据 NBA Advanced Stats的数据库，在福朱利安坐在北京国安队上的意味著，纽约的反攻效能每 100 淘汰赛下降 7.7 分，使 76 三巨头从每百淘汰赛总分比对右手多7.1分，变成净总可分不胜 2.3。

Still, to maximize their partnership, Harden and Embiid will have to develop two-man chemistry that utilizes both Harden's mastery of pick-and-roll angles and Embiid's ability to threaten defenses in a variety of manners. On the plus side, switching pick-and-rolls against them is unthinkable given Embiid's matchup advantages against smaller defenders in the post and Harden's ability to cook slower defenders 1-on-1.

尽管如此，为了最大限度地充分发挥他们的密切合作关系，勇士队和福朱利安必须构建并工业发展未婚夫的化学作用，利用勇士队对挡拆角度看的掌握和福朱利安以各种方式则严重威胁攻守的能力。 从好的特别来说，考虑到福朱利安在最下对小个攻守者的引子优势以及勇士队在一对足见鞭打速度慢的攻守者的能力，他们两者透过的挡拆是不可想象的。

How Harden fits defensively is more of a concern. The best defenses featuring Harden, both with the Rockets and the Nets, have relied heavily on switching. He's effective using his strength to counter bigger opponents and struggles in space. Often, that's meant an initial defensive assignment against big men for Harden, but that now means asking Philadelphia forward Tobias Harris to defend on a perimeter. Switching in lineups with Embiid doesn't make much sense, so Harden will surely be asked to play conventional pick-and-roll defense, a challenge for him.

勇士队如何充分利用攻守更加最让人担忧。勇士队打出的那些优秀的攻守代表作，无论是在助推器还是纽约尼克斯中后期，都严重也就是说代替防。 他发挥作用利用自己的力量牵制尺寸极大、未空间属性的对右手。 通常，这意味着勇士队最初的攻守护航是牵制大个子，但直到现在这意味着要求纽约之前锋托拜厄斯-安德森在快攻攻守。与福朱利安代替防未多大意义，所以勇士队应有时会被要求打传统文化的挡拆攻守，这对他来说是一个关键时刻。

Add it up, and I still have Milwaukee and the Miami Heat as the two favorites to win the Eastern Conference this year. That's an issue because the Sixers need immediate success to justify the contract they'll presumably hand Harden this offseason. Assuming Harden picks up his $47.4 million player option for 2022-23, he'll be eligible to sign a four-year, $223 million extension once extend-and-trade restrictions expire in six months.

综上所述，我一直相信堪萨斯城雄鹿和迈阿密热火是今年南部的两大大受欢迎。76三巨头面临一大弊下端，他们无需赶紧继续发展来证明他们确实时会在德明赛期交到勇士队的选择权的前提性。 举例勇士队在2022-23该季制订了实用价值 4740万美元的球星选项，一旦离队且报价的容许在六个月底后期满，他将有资格达成协议一份为期四年、实用价值 2.23亿美元的离队选择权。

That extension would take Harden through age 37, a point at which he's unlikely to still be an All-NBA type of contributor. We have more than enough evidence in recent years of how big extensions for aging guards can go wrong. As compared to the worst examples, Harden's shooting ability protects his value to a certain degree, but he's already shown marked decline this season at age 32.

这份选择权后勇士队的年龄将来到37岁，此时他不太确实一直是NBA最佳演员阵容等级的球星。近些年来，我们有足够多的确凿表明高龄前锋的大额离队选择权确实时会失败。与那些最坏的重构相对，勇士队的投纸制能力在一定持续性上保护措施了他的实用价值，但他在32岁的这个该季不太确实平庸出值得注意的回升。

In a vacuum, I'd probably rather have Simmons on his current contract than Harden on his next one, which could make everything else Philadelphia gave up painful. Curry was an important role player for the Sixers, who now find themselves relying on weaker shooters to fill out their wing rotation.

在假想环境之中面，我确实宁愿忍受克诺克当之前的选择权而不是勇士队的离队选择权，后者确实时会让纽约为在这笔报价之中面下定决心的一切而痛苦不堪。卡马是76人的关键性主角球星，他们直到现在正依赖较弱的射右手来补上他们的侧翼轮转。

Philadelphia did manage to hold on to recent first-round picks Tyrese Maxey and Matisse Thybulle in the negotiations. Maxey seems like a possible trade candidate down the line given he's most valuable with the ball in his hands, though his development as a shooter (40% on 3s this season) makes him a plausible option to team with Harden in the backcourt.

纽约在谈判之中面确实设法挽回了近期的六场费城76人泰雷斯-马克西和毕卡索-赛内尔。马克西似乎是一个确实的报价当选者，因为他的实用价值在于其有球时也时（与勇士队重叠），但他作为一名射右手的成长（本该季三分命之中面率 40%）使他被选为与勇士队在球场上搭档的前提选择。

The cost of keeping young talent was a pair of future first-round picks. Giving Brooklyn the option to defer this year's first-round pick to 2023 has a certain degree of downside for the 76ers if either Embiid or Harden misses an extended period due to injuries. Philadelphia got more favorable protection on the 2027 first-round pick, which can't be any higher than ninth and may not convey at all, though it's still possible the Sixers send a lottery pick at that point.

留住身为天赋的回报是一对期望的六场费城76人。如果福朱利安或勇士队因伤报销一段间隔时间内，皇后区可以选择将今年的六场费城76人推迟到 2023 年，这对76三巨头来说时会有一定持续性的不利直接影响。2027年的六场的保护措施有条件对纽约来说变得稳固，这一交位才时会高于第九名，而且确实确实才时会被转化（如该六场交在2029年一直被保护措施，则转化为两个次轮交和200万美元存入）。然而，在那个结点上76人送出恰巧交一直是可以给与的。

Ultimately, I'd rather do this deal than keep Simmons and hope to trade him this summer. I'm not sure I prefer it to what else might have been available for Philadelphia to upgrade this year's team without the long-term risk of Harden's next contract.

就此，我宁愿做这笔报价，也决意遗失克诺克并图谋在今年夏天报价他。但我不考虑到我究竟时会更加羡慕纽约系统升级今年演员阵容的其他确实性，以规避勇士队下一份选择权的长期风险。

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